While the swine flu raises public-health alarms globally, the prognosis for the world economy is not good if the outbreaks mutate into a pandemic. If there’s a pandemic on the level of the 1918 “Spanish” flu, a 2008 World Bank analysis says, it would cost the world economy $3.1 trillion and drop the world’s gross domestic product by 4.8 percent in the first year of infection. A pandemic like the less severe 1957 “Asian” flu would reduce global GDP by 2 percent, The World Bank concluded, while a pandemic like the most recent 1968 “Hong Kong” flu would cut world economic output by just under 1 percent
