Two political earthquakes have shaken Spanish life in the past week. First were the massive sit-ins that had tens of thousands of citizens camping out in the public squares of major cities in protest of the country’s capsized economy and unresponsive political class. The second came Sunday night, May 22, when voters in regional and municipal elections delivered a sound drubbing to the governing Socialist Party . Now, in Monday’s harsh light, no one seems sure whether the first phenomenon had anything to do with the second. And everyone is wondering what both mean for the future of Spain.
Since May 15, tens of thousands of Spaniards have taken over squares in 60 cities, clamoring for political, economic and social reform. As articulated by the group Real Democracy Now, which helped organize the protests, unemployment is high on the list of complaints. But so too are political corruption , suggested that citizens opposed to the current system should turn in blank ballots or abstain from voting altogether. For newspaper-kiosk owner Fethi Ben, who was forced to close his shop early because the crowds in Puerta del Sol had forced out his customers, that suggestion augurs badly for the Socialists. “I’m 100% certain that this is going to result in a victory for the right and a punishment for the left,” he said on Saturday, gesturing toward the crowds and their banners. “These people aren’t going to vote, which will only leave supporters of the right to do so.”
Certainly, the left was castigated last night. Winning just 27.8% of the vote, the Socialist Party had its worst local returns in the history of Spanish democracy, while the Popular Party , with 37.53%, took control of 11 out of the 13 regions in which elections were held. “Without a doubt, citizens have expressed their discontent,” said Prime Minister Jos Luis Rodrguez Zapatero at a press conference held late Sunday night. “It was reasonable to expect that the Socialist Party, which exercises the responsibility of governing the nation, would today be punished at the polls.” But consultant Luis Arroyo, who in the past has worked for the PSOE, doesn’t believe that rejection means Spanish society has turned sharply to the right. “The PP gained just 6,000 votes over the 2007 elections — and those took place before the crisis had begun,” Arroyo says. “The issue here isn’t that Spain has become more conservative but rather that the Socialists have become less progressive.”
So was the outcome influenced by the protesters, whose objectives seem to lie squarely in the progressive camp? Although the number of blank ballots was higher than it was four years ago — 2.54% to 1.94% — so too was overall voter participation: 66.23% vs. 63.24%. “My impression at this point is that their impact was small,” says Pablo Oate, a professor of political science at the University of Valencia. “It’s possible that they pulled some voters who in the past had voted for the PSOE to other parties like the United Left. But the number who turned in null or blank ballots didn’t go up much.”
With general elections slated for March 2012, most everyone is wondering what the week’s events portend for the future. With no end to the country’s economic troubles in sight, the protesters, who have vowed to continue their encampments for at least another week, may affect the government’s ability to maneuver. “There were pretty credible rumors among PSOE people that there would be a second batch of austerity measures in the autumn,” says Barcelona-based economist Edward Hugh. “But looking at all these protesters demanding a new world, and the current policies not even being able to offer them a job, I can’t see the present government having the stomach to wield the ax much more with next year’s elections starting to loom.”
Cuts or no, few observers see much hope for the Socialists, and already some politicians have used last night’s returns to call for early elections. Oate doesn’t believe that measure is necessary, but he does think the Socialists’ only chance is for Zapatero, who has already said he won’t run in 2012, to resign now. “They have to show that they’ve cleaned house, that they’re accountable for what has happened in Spain,” he says. It’s a sentiment with which the thousand of people still camping in Puerta del Sol would surely agree.
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