On April 5, a little-known Russian Senator and diplomat, Mikhail Margelov, published an article called “The Arab World Is Changing,” in which he argued that Russia is well-placed to act as mediator in the war in Libya, but it should think hard about the political risks. “We have too much going on in our own country,” he wrote. “We have elections coming up.” Two months on, the junior diplomat is starting to look prophetic.
With the war at a stalemate and the West apparently out of options for negotiating a truce, the U.S. asked Russia last week to step in and try to convince Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi to make a deal. Not only did Russian President Dmitri Medvedev agree — with potentially huge political consequences — but he also made the surprise decision to send in Margelov, who barely has two months under his belt as Russia’s envoy to Africa. “I am knocking on wood and crossing my fingers,” Margelov told TIME while planning his departure on Tuesday. “But it’s hard to guess what will happen.”
