With neighboring Syria in crisis, the Arab Spring has finally arrived on Turkey’s doorstep — and with it, one big headache for a government that has spent recent years staking its political fortunes on the region.
Since coming to power in 2002, the Islamic-rooted government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sought to become a kingpin in the Muslim world, driven by shared religious sensibility and economic expansionism. Turkish ministers have jetted between Middle Eastern capitals, signing trade deals and political cooperation protocols even as long-standing efforts to join the European Union have cooled. Erdogan stepped up criticism of Israel and became a hero on Arab streets for it.
Called neo-Ottomanism by some, the new foreign policy was based on the maxim “zero problems with neighbors.” As long as trade flourished and business was good, the argument went, why couldn’t everybody just get along. Bashir Assad’s Syria — which shares a 700km border with Turkey — was a key player in this scenario. Although the two countries came to the brink of war in the late 1990s, they became close political allies under Erdogan. The two leaders holidayed together on the Turkish coast and last year, lifted visa restrictions on travel. Unlike the revolution in Egypt, where Erdogan was quick to denounce Hosni Mubarak and call for a handover, he has been largely silent on the current uprising in Syria.
That parallels Turkey’s response to the uprising in Libya, where Turkish companies had billions of dollars in construction contracts and some 25,000 workers. Libyan rebels have since accused Ankara — a NATO member — of supporting Muammar Gaddafi’s regime.
Yet, despite strong economic ties, Erdogan does not appear to have the ear of either Assad or Gaddafi. “Turkey styled itself as a ‘wise elder’ and role model in the region, but when push comes to shove, it has become apparent that it has little influence over what is happening,” says Soli Ozel, international relations professor at Bilgi University and a political columnist. “This is the point where Turkish foreign policy hits the wall.”
